Jumat, 24 April 2009

NEW FOREX TRADING SYSTEM : Forexforliving_v.1.2

Hi guys...., as I already emailed to all of you, started on 15 May 2009, NFA not allowed all brokers under its registration to have hedging trading for all its respective customers. It lead to me for creating new trading system.
I need to create new trading system, since my previous trading system is using hedging technique.

After two week spending my time with sleepless night: calculating, thinking, coding, and testing, finally, I found new trading technique, which more SAFE and more PROFITABLE.

Well..., the strategy has not been 100% optimized with the best setting. But, it has been 90% toward its best setting. The "Core Strategy" behind its logic, already 97% confirm. I just need to test it using best currency pair , best time frame and best parameter constanta.

Below are the backtest result. I divide it using 3 money management and trading filter : Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative.

Below is backtest result for Aggressive Technique :
Period : November 2007 - March 2009 (1 year and 5 month)
First balance : 500 USD
Profit : 638 USD
Maximum Drawdown : 50%
Average Monthly Return (ROI Monthly) : 7.5%
Average Annually Return (ROI Annually) : 90%.
# of Trading : 13.839 --> Lot of trading, due to its aggressive characteristics.

Below is backtest result for Moderate Technique :

Period : November 2007 - March 2009 (1 year and 5 month)
First balance : 250 USD --> Lower Capital
Profit : 182 USD
Maximum Drawdown : 32%
Average Monthly Return (ROI Monthly) : 4.3%
Average Annually Return (ROI Annually) : 51%.
# of Trading : 3.714 --> lower # of trading compared than aggressive technique, due to this technique conduct some filter to increase winning probability.

Below is backtest result for Conservative Technique :
Period : November 2007 - March 2009 (1 year and 5 month)
First balance : 500 USD --> Lower Capital
Profit : 182 USD
Maximum Drawdown : 20%
Average Monthly Return (ROI Monthly) : 2.15%
Average Annually Return (ROI Annually) : 25%.

Well..., what do you think Guys ? Its awesome, right ?
With this new technique, we can increase from 36% annual return (Previous trading technique) to 90% annual return (Current trading technique).

Well..., start curious how it works ? let me explain some characteristic of this "Smart" trading system works.

Below is my "Demo Account". I tried this technique in Backtest, and also in demo account first, before I try it in Real Live account.

The "Green" means "Buy" position. The "Red" means "Sell" position.
Buy position create profit if price uptrend, and sell position create profit if price downtrend.
You can see, that in my system, already have "Smart Built in" indicator, which can decide automatically, whether the trend is up or down.
If the trend is up, then system will create buy position. If suddenly price move in the opposite direction, the system already have technique to repair position, and change it to profit.
If the trend is down, then system will create sell position. and so on.

So, the summary of my system are :
1. Do not predict the market. It following the trend.
2. It pure mathematically technique.
3. "Smart" system, which can decide buy, sell position, and repair its position if the decision wrong.
4. Have winning possibility 99%.

Guys, this is some Frequently Asked Questions you may ask:
1. Question : Why do you use only backtest from november 2007 - march 2009 ? Why not from year 2000 - year 2009 ?
Answer:
a. On 2008, almost all market situation happen on this year. Choppy, insane trending, etc, happen on this year. So, I think 1 year backtest is represent enough to represent all market situation.
b. It is take a long time if we want to backtest 9 year. It probably need 1 full day to compile it all. So, currently, I have no time to spend 1 full day just to have backtest.

2. Question : If backtest result showed good result, will this system create good profit in live account ?
Answer : The step by step process filter for good trading system is : Backtest --> Demo test (1 -2 month) --> live forward test (1 - 2 month).
This system already backtested with good result. Means, it passed the first filter.
Currently, I am doing demo test. so far so good. Looking forward for the live forward test soon.

3. Question : When your system ready to use ?
Answer : The trading system already confirm. I just need to test and optimizing parameter to achieve best result.
Then, I need to demo test it also for a month, to test its system stability.
And, it need time.
I hope guys..., If I work harder with additional sleepless night for several week, it will finish 2 month next at the latest. I Hope......
Because I want the best system also. I want it perfect!!! Because, this system is the one which make sure our money growth properly. Correct ? ^_^

Well...., so far, this is the update. I will update you once the system parameter optimizing already confirmed.

THANKS.

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